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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2458 (N09W43, Cai/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C3/Sf at 01/0810 UTC. AIA/193 imagery showed darkening in the corona that suggests an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may have accompanied the flare. Further analysis of any potential CMEs will be conducted once additional coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Region 2458 exhibited sheer and separation near its leader spot and minor dissipation was observed near the trailer spot. Region 2457 (N12W72, Hax/alpha) decayed almost entirely in the past 24 hours. Region 2459 (N04W14, Cro/beta) underwent minor development, adding two new spots. All other regions were either stable or in slight decay. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (01-03 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (01 Dec) with moderate to high levels on days two and three (02-03 Dec) due to enhanced winds from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Elevated wind speeds were observed throughout the period with winds ranging from around 550 km/s to 420 km/s. A gradual decline in speeds was observed until around 01/0700 UTC when an increase to around 500 km/s took place. Accompanying this increase was a temporary enhancement in density and total magnetic field strength (Bt) to around 7 nT. Bz was variable between +4 / -3 nT through most of the period before becoming mostly southward around 01/0940 UTC with a maximum deflection of -6 nT at 01/1041 UTC. Phi was was predominantly positive (away) with a brief transitions to negative (towards) from around 01/0650 UTC to 01/0930 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at elevated levels through early on day one (01 Dec) as CH HSS conditions persist. By day two (02 Dec), solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards background levels as CH HSS effects diminish. Day three (03 Dec) is expected to see the solar wind environment at near nominal levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled under the influence of a CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on day one (01 Dec). A slight chance exists for G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (01 Dec) due to possible prolonged periods southward Bz with enhanced wind speeds from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (02 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane. Day three (03 Dec) is expected to observe mostly quiet conditions as nearly nominal solar wind conditions return.

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