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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was a C2/Sf at 02/04446 UTC from Region 2458 (N11W60, Dai/beta). The region exhibited consolidation around the leader spot and minor dissipation among the intermediate spots. All other regions were relatively stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next two days (02-03 Dec). By day three (04 Dec), solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares due to Region 2458 rotating around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (02 Dec) with moderate to high levels possible on days two and three (03-04 Dec) due to enhanced winds from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the subsiding influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period and gradually decreased to around 400 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was around 5 - 6 nT through most of the period. A brief enhancement was observed with a peak of 9 nT around 01/1900 UTC and gradually decreased to 5 - 6 nT by 02/0100 UTC. Phi was predominantly positive (away) over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at elevated levels through early on day one (02 Dec) as CH HSS conditions persist. Later on day one through day two (03 Dec), solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards background levels as CH HSS effects diminish. By day three (04 Dec), solar wind parameters are expected to be at background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane. Days two and three (03-04 Dec) are expected to observe mostly quiet conditions as nominal solar wind conditions return.

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