[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Jan 18 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 January 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Very low conditions were observed on 11-14 January and again on 16-17 January. Low levels occurred on 15 January with a few weak C-class flares observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan). A 14 degree long filament, centered near S30W03, erupted between 14/1803-2048 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO LASCO imagery beginning at 14/2324 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, determined a potential glancing blow could impact Earth early on 19 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 11-14 January at quiet to active levels due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions persisted on 15-17 January. ACE satellite parameters indicated a maximum wind speed reading of 662 km/s at 12/0711 UTC. By period's end, wind speeds had declined to about 330 km/s. Total field (Bt) reached a maximum reading of 10 nT late on the 10th and generally ranged between 3-7 nT for a majority of the period. The Bz component varied between +/- 7 nT from late on the 11th through early on the 13th. Through the remainder of the period, Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation through midday on 16 January when a rotation to a more positive (away) sector was observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 January - 13 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18, 23-26, 29-31 January, 01-06 and 09-13 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active periods on 18-19 January due to possible glancing blow effects from the 14 Jan CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22-23, 28-29 January, 02-03 and 07-09 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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