[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with no reportable activity. All four of the spotted regions on the visible disk were either stable or exhibited slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one and two (18-19 Jan) and a slight chance for C-class activity on day three (20 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 2,710 pfu at approximately 17/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (18 Jan) due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Normal to moderate levels are expected on 19-20 Jan as a weak transient moves through. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (18-20 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft reflected ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was between 4 nT and 6 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low between 290-330 km/s. Phi angle was mostly in a positive (away) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels through day one (18 Jan). A slight enhancement is possible late on day two (19 Jan) due the weak glancing blow CME anticipated to arrive early on 19 Jan. A return to ambient levels is expected by day three (20 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through day one (18 Jan). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (19 Jan) with isolated active periods possible due to CME effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods is expected on day three (20 Jan).

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