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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 19 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2485 (N15E02, Bxo/beta) produced a B3 flare at 18/1625 UTC. However, the region was mostly inactive afterwards and continued to decay. Region 2486 (S20E50, Hsx/alpha) remained inactive and little changed. A new active region located at approximately S12E57 emerged and contained several spots in an apparent bipolar configuration, however we await confirmation reports from observatories before assigning a new SWPC region number.
An eruptive prominence from the limb (EPL), located near S40E90 occurred between 19/0057-0544 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one through three (19-21 Jan).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 1,560 pfu at 18/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease towards normal to moderate levels on days one and two (19-20 Jan) as the slow-moving transient effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (19-21 Jan).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters suggested the onset of an anticipated slow-moving CME at 18/2055 UTC. With arrival of the CME, solar wind speed increased from around 300 km/s to speeds between 375-400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) also increased, from near 5 nT to a peak of 15 nT, observed at 18/2304 UTC. The Bz component was primarily southward after the CME arrival until 19/0724 UTC, when the IMF reorientated predominantly northward. The phi angle was mainly positive (away from the Sun) until about 18/2315 UTC, when it became more neutral to negative (towards the Sun). The phi angle shifted primarily positive again after about 19/0515 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to CME effects through the remainder of day one (19 Jan). A further enhancement in wind speeds is likely on day two (20 Jan) as a CH HSS becomes geoeffective. A trend towards ambient level solar wind is expected by day three (21 Jan).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period with quiet conditions until the anticipated transient arrived at Earth and initiated geomagnetic responses to unsettled and active levels after 18/2100 UTC.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels the remainder of day one (19 Jan) due to lingering CME effects. Day two (20 Jan) is expected to experience primarily quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated period of active conditions likely due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Day three (21 Jan) is expected to experience quiet to unsettled conditions as the CH HSS rotates out of geoeffective position and its associated effects wane.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Jan 19 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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