[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 20 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1/Sf flare at 20/0734 UTC from Region 2484 (N08W77, Dro/beta). The region underwent some growth and produced several additional B-class flares during the period. Region 2487 (S15E41, Dao/beta) gained penumbra over both leader and trailer spots. The region was inactive, but does lie along a contorted section of the solar sector boundary and may be prone to additional magnetic field line stresses. Region 2488 (N04E57, Cro/beta) was assigned during the period, but it was inactive. All other regions were either stable or in decay.

Two disappearing solar filaments (DSF) occurred. The first was approximately 9 degree long and centered near S36E15. The DSF took place between 19/1727-2124 UTC and did not appear eruptive. The second DSF was approximately 7 degrees in length and centered near N11W19. This DSF appeared to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one through three (20-22 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (20-22 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (20-22 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated continued CME effects. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was enhanced and ranged between 10 to 17 nT. The Bz component of the magnetic field was predominately northward until about 20/0330 UTC, when it reorientated southward through the remainder of the period. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 350-375 km/s until about 20/0030 UTC, when speeds gradually increased to speeds just over 400 km/s. Solar wind speed was around 375 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was positive (away from the Sun) until around 19/2200 UTC, when it redirected primarily negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (20 Jan). A trend towards ambient level solar wind is expected by day two (21 Jan) as CME effects dissipate. On day three (22 Jan), a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position and provide another enhancement in the solar wind and IMF.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but reached active levels later in the period due to the enhanced IMF strength and prolonged period of favorable southward Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels on day one (20 Jan) due to the enhanced IMF and prolonged periods of southward Bz component. The geomagnetic response is expected to decrease to unsettled to active conditions later in the day. Day two (21 Jan) is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions as the CME effects wane. On day three (22 Jan), conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions as another negative polarity CH HSS enhances the near-Earth space environment.

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