[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 21 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 2484 (N08W90) rotated out of view along the limb; however it did produce a C1 flare at 21/0813 UTC. Region 2488 (N04E44, Dao/beta) underwent additional growth and produced a C1 flare at 21/0536 UTC, despite the regions simple E-W bipolar configuration. Region 2487 (S13E28, Dai/beta) grew further, gaining spots and penumbral coverage throughout the group. The region produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 flare at 21/0145 UTC. The region lies along a contorted section of the solar sector boundary neutral line, and this coupled with the regions N-S bipolar configuration has likely increased magnetic shear in the region. Region 2486 (S20E24, Hsx/alpha) was stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one through three (21-23 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (21-22 Jan), with high levels likely on day three (23 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (21-23 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters reflected continued, but waning influence, of the 14 Jan CME; coupled with arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of an expected negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total IMF strength remained elevated, but began to weaken from 15 to 11 nT the first half of the period, before it increased with CIR arrival around 21/0000 UTC and peaked at 20 nT at 21/0545 UTC. IMF orientation was in a prolonged southward direction prior to the CIR arrival. The IMF orientation became variable after about 20/2130 UTC, however the deviations between north and south orientations became pronounced and maximum -Bz deflection reached -19 nT at 21/0350 UTC. Solar wind speeds ranged primarily from 350-375 km/s until approximately 20/2300 UTC, when speed began to increase, reaching around 475-500 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle remained in a negative (towards the Sun) sector throughout the period.

Total IMF strength decreased from about 15 nT to an average of 7 nT just after 21/1000 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from around 450 km/s to just over 500 km/s immediately afterwards; suggestive of CIR passage and connection with the CH HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated on day one (21 Jan) as the the CH HSS effects Earth. Solar wind speed will likely remain elevated under the influence of the CH HSS into day two (22 Jan), before beginning to decrease by day three (23 Jan) as the CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from active levels to minor (G1-Minor) storming late on 20 Jan due to geomagnetic response to the enhanced IMF and prolonged southward orientated Bz component from lingering CME effects. Conditions escalated to moderate (G2-Moderate) storming levels early on 21 Jan due to a further disturbed and enhanced IMF due to CIR effects, before geomagnetic activity decreased to minor (G1) storming as CIR effects waned and Earth connected with the CH HSS.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease from minor (G1-Minor) storming levels to unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS effects during the remainder of day one (21 Jan). Geomagnetic response is expected to reach unsettled, with isolated active periods on day two (22 Jan) as Earth remains under the influence of the CH HSS. Day three (23 Jan) is likely to experience quiet to unsettled conditions as the CH HSS persists, but begins to wane, reducing expected geomagnetic response.

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