[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 22 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2487 (S13E17, Dao/beta) produced a C1 flare at 21/1351 UTC. The region underwent some decay as the period progressed, decreasing penumbral area and complexity. The magnetic shear evident previously, has weakened; and it produced no further flares during the period. Region 2488 (N04E33, Dai/beta) gained penumbral area and increased in spots, however, the region remained in a simple, E-W bipolar configuration and did not produce any flares through the period. Region 2486 (S21E11, Hsx/alpha) decayed further and was inactive.

An approximately 6 degree long, linear filament centered near N32E38 disappeared between about 22/0600-22/0800 UTC as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery. Initial analysis of SDO/AIA imagery indicated this DSF had some eruptive signatures, however, we await updated SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor) on days one through three (22-24 Jan) due primarily to slightly higher flare probability from Region 2488.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one (22 Jan), with high levels likely on days two and three (23-24 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected higher wind speeds associated with a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed was variable, but ranged primarily between 475-575 km/s over the period. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) held predominantly between 5 to 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was variable between north and south deviations, with a few occasions of prolonged southward orientation and a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) over the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated on day one (22 Jan) as the the CH HSS effects Earth. Solar wind speed will likely begin to decrease on day two (23 Jan) and continue to trend towards background levels on day three (24 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly unsettled to active the remainder of day one (22 Jan) in response to the continued influence of the CH HSS. Days two and three (23-24 Jan) are likely to see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions as the CH HSS effects wane.

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