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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 25 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. New Region 2489 (N09E60, Dao/beta) produced a pair of impulsive C1 x-ray events at 25/0907 UTC and 1033 UTC, respectively. Region 2488 (N03W09, Dai/beta), the largest region on the disk, produced a B8 x-ray event at 24/2217 UTC. The region continued to exhibit slow growth in its intermediate and trailer spots.
Region 2487 (S12W18, Cro/beta) exhibited steady decay. New Region (S18E81, Bxo/beta) rotated around the SE limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, including a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-Minor), over the next three days (25-27 Jan).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,900 pfu observed at 24/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels over the next three days (25-27 Jan) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (25-27 Jan).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a gradual return to nominal conditions. Wind speeds began the period at about 460 km/s. Wind speed briefly increased to about 500 km/s at 24/1430 UTC, remained so through about 24/2100 UTC and gradually decreased to end the period near 425 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 3-8 nT through about 24/2000 UTC when the field became steady at about 5 nT.
The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT at 24/1725 UTC before rotating steady northward between 1-3 nT. The phi angle transitioned from a negative (toward) solar sector orientation to a positive (away) configuration at around 24/1400 UTC before rotating back to a steady negative orientation at about 24/2000 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (25 Jan), and remain so over the next two days (26-27 Jan) with wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s, due to the onset of a positive polarity, northern pole-connected coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels but increased to isolated active levels during the period 24/1800-2100 UTC. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.
Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (25 Jan). Field conditions at expected to reach active levels (Below G1-Minor) by days two and three (26-27 Jan) due to the effects of a positive polarity, pole-connected CH HSS.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Jan 25 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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