[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity declined to very lows with a few B-class flares observed from Region 2489 (N10E46, Dao/beta). The region exhibited overall growth as it continued to rotate onto the disk. The largest region on the disk, Region 2488 (N03W21, Dai/beta), exhibited growth in its intermediate and follower spots but remained quiet. Region 2487 (S12W42, Bxo/beta), as well Region 2490 (S20E66, Cao/beta) remained quiescent throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-Minor), throughout the period (26-28 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,141 pfu observed at 26/0930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels over the next three days (26-28 Jan) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (26-28 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind environment. Wind speeds began the period at about 425 km/s and gradually declined to end-of-period speeds near 360 km/s. Total field (Bt) averaged between 3-6 nT while the Bz component remained steadily northward at around 1-2 nT. The phi angle was in a steady negative (towards) orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (26 Jan), and remain so into day two (27 Jan) with wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s, due to the onset of a positive polarity, northern pole-connected CH HSS. Conditions are expected to taper off late on day two and into day three (28 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active (below G1-Minor) periods on days one and two (26-27 Jan), due to the effects of a positive polarity, pole-connected CH HSS. Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation