[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare at 02/1452 UTC from an active region beyond the ENE limb. Newly numbered Region 2493 (S06W21, Bxo/beta) grew gradually over the period and produced a couple of low level B-class flares. Region 2489 (N10W64, Hax/alpha) was inactive and stable. Region 2490 (S20W48, Cro/beta) redeveloped, as additional spots emerged and rudimentary penumbra developed around a leader spot. Region 2491 (N02E38, Dao/beta) changed little over the period and maintained a simple bipolar configuration. Region 2492 (N15E54, Dao/beta) gained mature penumbra around a trailer spot and continued to grow during the period. The region is prone to foreshortening effects due to limb proximity, therefore actual magnetic classification is still suspect. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (03-05 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (03 Feb). Days two and three (04-05 Feb) are expected to see moderate to high levels due effects from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced near during the period. Solar wind speed was near 270 km/s to begin the period before gradually increasing and remaining steady at speeds near 380 km/s. Total field began the period at about 5 nT, before it began to increase and peaked at 11 nT. The Bz component was mostly variable, but sustained a southward orientation with a deflection of about -8 nT from near 02/2100-03/0400 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly positive. The slightly enhanced solar wind and IMF parameters are likely a reflection of an expected CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (03-04 Feb) due to CIR arrival followed by the positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (05 Feb) is expected to see a waning trend towards background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but reached as high as G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 03-06 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels with a few isolated periods of active levels on day one (03 Feb) due to CIR and CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (04 Feb) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Day three (05) is expected to see a return to quiet conditions.

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