[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 04 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to several C-class flares from various regions. Newly numbered Region 2494 (S12E20, Dai/beta) emerged and produced a C1 flare at 04/0214 UTC. Region 2490 (S21W62, Dao/beta) redeveloped, as it gained penumbra around both leader and trailer spots. Region 2491 (N03E24, Cro/beta) underwent some dissipation as it decreased in penumbral areal coverage. The region was inactive and continued its decaying trend. Region 2492 (N15E43, Dsi/beta) continued to grow as it rotated further onto the visible disk. The region produced a C1 flare at 03/1223 UTC, but was otherwise inactive. Region 2489 (N09W78, Hax/alpha) continued its slow decay trend and was inactive. An active region just beyond the ENE limb continues to be active, as it produced a C1 flare at 03/1524 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with C-class flares likely the next three days (04-06 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels the next 2 days (04-05 Feb), with a chance for normal to moderate levels on day three (06 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of positive polarity coronal hole influences. Solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s at the start of the period to speeds near 425-450 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength was enhanced and varied between primarily 6-11 nT. The Bz component was mostly in a northward orientation. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated into day one (04 Feb), before beginning to weaken by day two (05 Feb) as CH HSS effects wane. A return to more background-like conditions is expected on day three (06 Feb) as Earth exits the positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach a few isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day one (04 Feb) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to lower to quiet levels by day two on into day three (05-06 Feb) as CH HSS effects wane.

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