[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 05 1245 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 05 1245 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels with several C-class flares, most of which were from Region 2494 (S12E03, Dao/beta). 2494 also produced the largest flare of the period, a C5 at 04/1822 UTC. Region 2490 (S21W76, Dao/beta) was the other C-class flare producing region, as it managed a C1 flare at 04/1955 UTC. All remaining regions were either stable or undergoing decaying trends.

Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S05W40 that was active from 05/0300-0400 UTC in H-Alpha imagery. Coronal dimming in SDO/AIA 193 and the filament lifting off in SDO/AIA 304 imagery were also observed near that time. As coronagraph imagery becomes available, further forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling will occur to determine if there is a CME with an Earth-directed component associated with this event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days (05-07 Feb) due to the flare potential of Region 2494.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (05 Feb). Moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (06-07 Feb) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed increased from near 425 km/s early to about 500 km/s by periods end. Total field was enhanced and peaked at 11 nT at 04/1603 UTC, before gradually decreasing to 5 nT over the latter half of the period. The Bz component was variable and reached a maximum deflection of -8 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at slightly elevated levels, but begin slowly decreasing as the influences of the positive polarity CH HSS wane through day one (05 Feb). Day two (06 Feb) is expected to see a return to nominal conditions. On day three (07 Feb), parameters may become enhanced due to an approaching CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (05 Feb) due to waning CH HSS effects. Day two (06 Feb) is expected to experience quiet conditions. Day three (07 Feb) is expected to be predominantly quiet with an unsettled period likely later in the day due to effects from the approaching CIR ahead of the CH HSS.

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