[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. C1 flares occurred at 05/1311 UTC from Region 2496 (N09E49) and 06/0311 UTC from Region 2494 (S12W11, Dai/beta). A long duration C1 flare occurred at 05/2120 UTC as a result of a 9 degree filament eruption centered near S01E06 that occurred between 05/1829-1941 UTC. Another eruptive filament (approximately 10 degree) centered near S19W28 was observed lifting off between 05/1939-2016 UTC. A associated CME was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/2112 UTC. Preliminary WSA-ENLIL model output suggests a possible weak glancing blow midday on 09 February, however further analysis is in progress.

Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2492 (N13E15, Cro/beta) while Regions 2493 (S06W67, Axx/alpha) and 2495 (S08W55, Bxo/beta) were in a decay phase. Region 2494 simplified to a beta magnetic group. New Region 2497 (N13E63, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days (06-08 Feb) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2494.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (06 Feb). Moderate levels are possible on days two and three (07-08 Feb) due to waning CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to decline towards nominal levels through the period. solar wind decreased from a high of 517 km/s to near 450 km/s. Total field (Bt) was between 1 nT and 5 nT with the Bz component variable between +5 nT and -4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away).

Forecast: Late on day two (07 Feb), an enhancement from a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected. Enhancements are anticipated to persist through day three (08 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (06 Feb) under nominal solar wind conditions. A SSBC followed closely by a negative polarity CH HSS is expected late in the day on day two (07 Feb) causing unsettled conditions. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (08 Feb), with minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions possible, as CH HSS activity persists.

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