Propagation
[Top] [All Lists]

[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

To: propagation@contesting.com
Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 07 1230 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2016 20:07:08 +0000
List-post: <propagation@contesting.com">mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. C1/Sf flares occurred at 06/1938 UTC and 06/2244 UTC from Region 2494 (S11W23, Dki/beta), as well as a C1 flares at 07/0445 UTC and 07/1035 UTC from Region 2496 (N08E38, Bxi/beta). Slight growth was observed in Region 2492 (N13E01, Dri/beta-gamma) with slight to moderate growth in Regions 2494, 2495 (S08W69, Dao/beta), and 2497 (N13E52, Dai/beta). Region 2496 reemerged over the period. Umbral separation was noted in the larger trailing spots of Region 2494. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days (07-09 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate levels on days one through three (07-09 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary change around 07/0435 UTC to a negative (towards) sector followed by the beginning of a prolonged negative Bz component late in the period. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Solar wind decreased from approximately 450 km/s to near 395 km/s.

Forecast: Late on day one (07 Feb), an enhancement is likely from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are anticipated to persist through day three (09 Feb). Modeling of the 05 Feb CME events shows an additional enhancement likely on day three (09 Feb) due to a possible weak glancing blow.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected for the latter half of day one (07 Feb) as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through day two (08 Feb). A weak glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME is possible around mid-day on day three (09 Feb) causing continued unsettled to active conditions.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr



Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Feb 07 20:07 UTC

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
<Prev in Thread] Current Thread [Next in Thread>
  • [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 07 1230 UTC, nw7us <=