[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels as Region 2497 (N12W56, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/1926 UTC and an M1 flare at 15/1100 UTC as well as multiple C-class flares over the period. Slight growth and consolidation was observed in the larger intermediate spots in Region 2497. The delta in Region 2497 appeared to be breaking up into multiple smaller deltas over the period. Slight decay was observed in Region 2500 (S18W50, Cro/beta) while new Region 2501 (N05E68, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (15-17 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (15-17 Feb). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over the next three days (15-17 Feb) due to the complexity and position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 365 km/s to 430 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT. Phi angle switched from positive (away) to a negative (towards) sector around 15/0630 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced mid to late on day one (15 Feb) as the anticipated 11 Feb CME reaches Earth. Enhancements are expected persist through day two (16 Feb). Day three (17 Feb) is expected to see an additional enhancement from the onset of a polar connected, negative polarity, CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until the onset of the anticipated 11 Feb CME mid to late on day one (15 Feb). After the arrival, minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions are likely. Day two (16 Feb) is likely to observe mostly unsettled to active conditions as the CME effects subside. Day three (17 Feb) is expected to observed minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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