[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low during the reporting period. Region 2497 (N12W68, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for frequent C-class level activity throughout the reporting period and was the sole provider of significant flaring. Region 2497 displayed signs of slight decay in its intermediate spots while showing signs of consolidation and growth in its intermediate and leader spots. Region 2500 decreased in areal coverage and decayed to a plage region. Region 2501 (N04E56, Hsx, alpha) was unremarkable and stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (16-18 Feb) due to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (16-17 Feb). Day three (18 Feb) should see a redistribution of electrons due to the anticipated arrival of a polar-connected, negative polarity, CH HSS. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over the next three days (16-18 Feb) due to the magnetic complexity and location of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as observed by the ACE satellite, were indicative of enhanced conditions influenced by the onset of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speed showed a steady increase starting at approximately 420 km/s and rising to peak values near 550 km/s before settling to period ending values near 500 km/s. The total field (Bt) gradually increased from near 5 nT to 16 nT over the period. Bz was variable but reached its highest deflections later in the period. The maximum southward deflection was -16 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through all three days (16-18 Feb) due to the anticipated CIR ahead of the CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated period of G1-Minor storm conditions during the 16/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period due to the arrival of the CIR associated with coronal hole 55.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active levels, with minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions expected on days one and two (16-17 Feb), due to the onset of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Day three (18 Feb) should see persistent CH HSS effects in which active conditions are likely.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation