[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2497 continued its migration around the west limb and remained the primary flare producer of the period. Region 2497 produced two C7 flares at 17/1813 UTC and 18/0158 UTC. Region 2502 (N08W20, Bxo/beta) was absent of significant flaring and showed signs of decay. New Region 2503 (N06W06, Bxo/beta) emerged onto the visible disk and produced a C1/Sf at 17/1751 UTC.

A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery off of the west limb and is believed to be associated with the C7/Sf flare from Region 2497 mentioned above. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined that the CME was off the Sun-Earth line.

Other activity included a nine degree filament that erupted in the vicinity of Region 2501 between 18/0416-0634 UTC. Further analysis will occur to determine if there is a CME associated with this event when coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on day one (18 Feb) due to the flare history and potential in Region 2497. On days two and three (19-20 Feb), solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares as Region 2497 departs around the western limb and a much lower risk of flare potential will exist.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels recovering quickly after the arrival of a polar-connected, negative polarity, CH HSS. A peak flux value of 4,875 pfu was observed at the GOES-13 spacecraft at 17/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (18-20 Feb). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-Minor levels on day one (18 Feb) due to the magnetic complexity and proximity to the western limb of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as measured by the ACE satellite, was indicative of continued CH HSS influence. Wind speeds were elevated between 550 km/s and 65 km/s through the period. The total field (Bt) was enhanced, ranging between 4 and 9 nT while the Bz component of the IMF was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist on days one and two (18-19 Feb) in response to CH HSS influence. Day three (20 Feb) should see the solar wind environment begin to taper as it returns to background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels, with an isolated period of major (G2-Moderate) storming the last synoptic period of the day, due to the impact and continued effects of the negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major (G2-Moderate) storming on day one (18 Feb) as solar wind speeds remain elevated and the IMF remains enhanced in response to the continued effects of the negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (19 Feb) should see mostly unsettled to active conditions as CH HSS influence begins to wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (20 Feb).

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