[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to several C-class flares from various regions. The largest flare of the period was a C2 flare from Region 2497 (N13, L=097). Region 2501 (N05E20, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1/Sf flare at 18/2113 UTC but was stable showing no growth or decay during the reporting period. The remaining regions on the visible disk were absent of significant flare activity and were unremarkable.

Other activity included an active filament centered near S34E54 that erupted from 18/2154-2245 UTC. A CME was observed off the southwest limb that was likely associated with this event, however forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined that it was off the Sun-Earth line.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flares likely on days one through three (19-21 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to very high levels with a peak flux value of 13,229 pfu observed at the GOES-13 spacecraft at 18/1925 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (19-21 Feb) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the duration of the forecast period (19-21 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as measured by the ACE satellite, was indicative of continued CH HSS influence. Wind speeds gradually decreased from speeds near 630 km/s to 560 km/s by periods end. Total field (Bt) ranged between 2 and 6 nT while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist on day one (19 Feb) in response to continued CH HSS influence. Day two and three (20-21 Feb) should see the solar wind environment return to near background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to continued effects from the negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (19 Feb) as solar wind speeds remain elevated in response to the continued effects from the negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (20 Feb) should see mostly unsettled to active conditions as CH HSS influence begins to wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (21 Feb).

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