[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with several low level B-class flares from Region 2501 (N05W52, Hsx/alpha) and an unnumbered region located near S07E63. Region 2505 (N08W79, Dac/beta) was absent of significant flaring and unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (24-26 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and the 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (24-26 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of ambient background conditions. Solar wind speed was steady in the 330-380 km/s range. IMF field strength (Bt) ranged from 5-7 nT. Bz was mostly variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT near the mid point of the period. The phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) sector with a brief period of positive (away from the Sun) orientation between 23/1900-2000 UTC.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for the majority of day one (24 Feb) until late in the day when phi angle is expected to rotate into a positive orientation with a gradual increase in wind speeds. This is due to the expected arrival of a northern polar extension coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated periods of unsettled levels due to a prolonged period of sustained -Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (24-26 Feb) due to the expected arrival of the aforementioned positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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