[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 25 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 flare at 24/1229 UTC from newly numbered Region 2506 (S07E42, Bxo/beta). Region 2506 produced frequent B-class flare activity and showed signs of growth in its trailer. Region 2501 (N05W60, Hsx/alpha) was stable with little to no growth or decay noted. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 1,150 pfu at 24/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (25-27 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of ambient background conditions. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline, starting the period near 340 km/s and ending at approximately 300 km/s. IMF field strength (Bt) ranged between 4 and 8 nT. Bz was mostly variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) sector with a brief period of positive (away from the Sun) orientation between 24/1700-1800 UTC.

Forecast: Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb) due to the influence a positive polarity, northern polar extension, coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb) due to the influence of the aforementioned positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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