[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2506 (N07E21, Cro/beta) produced the strongest event of the period, a C1 x-ray flare at 26/0951 UTC. The region developed a few short-lived intermediate spots during the past 24 hours. Newly numbered Region 2507 (N18W60, Cro/beta) exhibited rudimentary penumbra around its trailer spot. Another region of emerging flux was noted around S25E15 and appears to be decaying into plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (26-28 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 932 pfu observed at 25/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, suggested near background conditions with weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Bt gradually increased to a peak of 13 nT around 25/2100 UTC before slowly declining to 6-7 nT by the periods end. The Bz component was predominantly oriented northward. Solar wind speeds increased steadily beginning around 270 km/s and ending the period around 420 km/s. A rotation in phi angle from the negative to the positive sector was observed between 25/1900 UTC - 25/2000 UTC. A density increase accompanied the phi angle transition and was followed by a steady decline towards 1 p/cc.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain slightly enhanced on days one and early on day two (26-27 Feb) with ambient levels anticipated on day three (28 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels, with isolated periods of unsettled conditions, on days one and two (26-27 Feb). Quiet levels are expected on day three (28 Feb) under a nominal solar wind environment.

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