[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The only notable flare activity was a couple of mid level B-class flares that appeared to be associated with old Region 2497 (N12, L=091), just rotating on to the east limb. Region 2506 (S07W27, Dai/beta) remained the most complex region on the disk, yet was inactive throughout the period. The region continued to decay, losing many of its trailer and intermediate spots as well as decreasing in overall area. Regions 2508 (N05W13, Axx/alpha) 2509 (N08E07, Cso/beta) remained relatively simple magnetically and were also mostly inactive during the period.

An eruptive prominence on the northeast limb (EPL) was observed in both GONG H-alpha and LASCO coronagraph imagery, beginning at approximately 01/0820 UTC. The EPL was estimated to be approximately 18 degrees long and was centered near N20E76. Due to its location and apparent trajectory, it is not expected to have an impact at Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (01-03 Mar), due mainly to the expected return of old Region 2497 (N12, L=091) on 01 March, as well as the expected development of regions on the disk.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels all three days of the forecast period (01-03 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, were indicative of a nominal, background solar wind environment for the first half of the period. Bt was steady between 3-8 nT, the Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged near 320 km/s. At approximately 01/0400 UTC, conditions appeared to reflect the onset of the expected positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength increased to over 10 nT, peaking at 13 nT at 01/0531 UTC. Bz saw a maximum southward deflection near -6 nT and solar wind speeds saw a marked increase to reach a peak of 432 at 01/0719 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (01 Mar) in response to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Late in day two (02 Mar) the enhancement in the solar wind and IMF field are expected to begin to decrease as CH HSS effects begin to taper off. Day three (03 Mar) will likely see the effects from the CH HSS decline further, trending towards ambient background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period (01/0000-0300 UTC).

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a few, isolated active periods on day one (01 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. Unsettled conditions are expected again on day two (02 Mar)as CH HSS effects continue, but begin to weaken. By day three (03 Mar), conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects wane.

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