[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels with only low-level B-class flares observed throughout the period. Region 2506 (S07W41, Dso/beta) remained the most complex region on the disk, displayed decay and consolidation in its leader spots and slight growth in its intermediate spots, yet was inactive throughout the period. Regions 2508 (N05W27, Axx/alpha) and 2509 (N09W07, Bxo/beta) both remained mostly unchanged and quiescent throughout the period. New Regions 2510 (N05E57, Cro/beta) and 2511 (N05E64, Axx/alpha) were both numbered. Region 2510 is believed to be old Region 2497 (N12, L=091). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (02-04 Mar), due mainly to the anticipated activity from new Region 2510.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels all three days of the forecast period (02-04 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength remained fairly consistent near 10 nT throughout the period. Bz was predominantly positive with occasional southward deflections to near -7 nT. Solar wind speeds fluctuated between 340 km/s and 440 km/s for most of the period before seeing a gradual increase to end-of-period speeds near 460 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced on days one and two (02-03 Mar) as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS persist. Day three (04 Mar) will likely see the effects from the CH HSS begin to wane early before slowly increasing near the end of the period as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one through three (02-04 Mar) due to residual CH HSS effects.

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