[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2512 (N12W35, Cao/beta) underwent minor penumbral growth and increased slightly in areal extent but began to consolidate toward the end of this period. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

A large prominence near the southwest limb slowly lifted off at around 06/1400 UTC with an associated CME visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 06/2138 UTC, but his CME is directed well west of the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (07-09 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels early in the period but quickly decreased to normal levels after around 06/1650 UTC in response to a disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels late on day one (07 Mar) with high levels likely on days two and three (08-09 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed values steadily increased from initial values near 365 km/s to a peak of around 630 km/s at 07/0600 UTC. IMF total field strength (Bt) values slowly decreased from a peak of 22 nT early in the period to around 5-6 nT by 07/0400 UTC where they remained steady for the remainder of the period. Bz reached was mostly southward between 06/1400-07/0500 UTC and reached a maximum southward deflection of around -18 nT. The phi angle was steady in a negative solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (07 Mar) but begin a return to near-background levels on days two and three (08-09 Mar) as the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels early in the period but the effects of a CIR and negative polarity CH HSS caused G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions late on 06 Mar into early 07 Mar. Unsettled to active levels were observed late in the period as the geomagnetic disturbance weakened. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of day one (07 Mar) with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely due to continued CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (08-09 Mar) as CH HSS effects weaken and subside.

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