[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as only background flare activity was observed during the period. Region 2511 (N02W29, Bxo/beta) reemerged and exhibited minor spot development, but was quiescent during the period. Region 2512 (N10W49, Cao/beta) continued to be the most complex region on the visible disk, yet remained stable and inactive throughout the period. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

An approximately 10 degree long disappearing solar filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery from approximately 07/2113 UTC to 08/0529 UTC. The associated CME is just now becoming visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery and will be analyzed as imagery fills in to determine if there is an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (08-10 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels the last synoptic period of the UT day. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on all three days of the forecast period (08-10 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from initial values near 640 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 480 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) remained steady between 3 nT and 7 nT during the period. Bz was mostly southward for the beginning of the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection near -6 nT, before becoming variable between 5 nT and -3 nT by the end of the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (08 Mar), but begin a return to near-background levels on days two and three (09-10 Mar) as the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions during the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active conditions early on day one (08 Mar) as CH HSS effects persist. Day two (09 Mar) should see predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (10 Mar) as nominal conditions return.

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