[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed. Regions 2513 (N09W38, Hsx/alpha) and 2519 (N06E55, Cao/beta) were relatively stable throughout the period while the remaining two active regions were in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (11-13 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,270 pfu observed at 10/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on day one (11 Mar) with high levels likely on days two and three (12-13 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (11-13 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels until around 11/0400 UTC when an enhancement likely caused by a CME from 06 Mar was observed. Solar wind speeds were steady near 320-350 km/s until 11/0400 UTC when a steady increase to end-of-period values near 400 km/s was observed. IMF total field (Bt) values steadily increased from 4 nT to 26 nT after 11/0400 UTC and Bz reached -25 nT briefly late in the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (11-12 Mar) due to continued CME effects followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (11 Mar) due to the effects of a likely CME. Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (12 Mar) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (13 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides.

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