[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 12/0619 UTC from Region 2513 (N09W50, Hsx/alpha). New Region 2520 (N04E24, Bxo/beta) was numbered but began to decay late in the period. The remaining two active regions were stable.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed off the south-southwest in LASCO C3 imagery at 12/0054 UTC and 12/0330 UTC. The first CME is believed to be associated with far-sided activity but the second CME was likely associated with an episode of coronal dimming near S50E15 at 12/0128 UTC, as observed in SDO 193 imagery. Analysis suggests that neither CME is Earth-directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (12-14 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next days (12-14 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the residual influence of a CME early in the period followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds sharply increased from the low-to-mid 400 km/s range to a peak of around 590 km/s at 11/1900 UTC, but slowly decreased throughout the remainder of the period to around 500 km/s. IMF total field (Bt) values reached 24 nT early in the period and remained elevated until around 11/1900 UTC when Bt decreased to around 6 nT and remained steady through the end of the period. Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -14 nT early this period but remained mostly northward after 11/1900 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (12 Mar) due to continued CH HSS influence. A return to near-background levels is expected on days two and three (13-14 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels this period due to the effects of a CME followed by the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13-14 Mar) as CH HSS influence weakens and subsides.

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