[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2521 (N20E08, Dri/beta) exhibited minor penumbral growth this period while the remaining two spotted active regions were stable or in minor decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (13-15 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (13-15 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed steadily decreased from initial values near 500-525 km/s to end-of-period values near 425 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values were steady between 3-8 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels on days one and two (13-14 Mar) under a nominal solar wind regime. The anticipated onset of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause an enhancement in the solar wind on day three (15 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13-14 Mar) with unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on day three (15 Mar) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation