[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Mar 14 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Mar 14 0430 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 March 2016

Solar activity reached low levels on 08-09 and 12 March. The largest event of the period was a C3 flare from Region 2519 (N05, L=007, class/area=Cso/80 on 13 Mar) at 09/1250 UTC. Very low levels of solar activity were observed throughout the remainder of the period. No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in coronagraph imagery were determined to be Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 07-11 Mar and decreased to moderate levels on 12-13 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early on 07 Mar due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity levels subsided to quiet to unsettled levels on 08 Mar and quiet levels by 09 Mar. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 10 Mar and continued into early on 11 Mar when the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS caused G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions. As the CH HSS progressed, conditions tapered down to active levels early on 12 Mar and into quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the day. Activity continued to subside with only quiet conditions observed on 13 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 March - 09 April 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 16-21 Mar and 04-06 Apr. Moderate levels are expected on 22 Mar-03 Apr and 07-09 Apr. Normal levels are expected on 14-15 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15-16 Mar and 02-03 Apr due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected on 17 Mar and 08 Apr. Unsettled conditions are expected 18 Mar and 01, 04, 07, 08 Apr. Quiet conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.

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