[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 14 1500 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 14 1500 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2521 (N09W03, Dao/beta) underwent minor growth this period and the remaining two active regions were stable or in minor decay. A small area of new sunspots located near N15W50 emerged late in the period, but remained unnumbered.

Magnetic reconnection followed by an episode of coronal dimming centered near N35W05 was observed in SDO 193 imagery beginning around 13/2148 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen off the north in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0012 UTC and analysis is underway to determine if this event is Earth-directed. Two additional CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery this period but were not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (14-16 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (14-15 Mar) with moderate to high levels likely on day three (16 Mar).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (14-16 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 430 km/s to end-of-period values near 380 km/s, Bt varied between 1-7 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning midday on day two (15 Mar) through the end of day three (16 Mar) due to the effects of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a south polar-connected, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (14 Mar) under a background solar wind environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely midday on day two (15 Mar) and early on day three (16 Mar) due to the anticipated onset of a CIR preceding the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (14 Mar). Early to midday on day two (15 Mar), and persisting through day three (16 Mar), a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to G1-minor storm levels.

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