[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 15 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2521 (N19W16, Dao/beta) showed signs of decay, losing many of its intermediate and trailer spots, yet managed to produce the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 15/0929 UTC. Region 2522 (N13W63, Cao/Beta) developed during the first half of the period, produced a couple of B-class flares, then began to show signs of decay by the end of the period. Region 2519 (N05W01, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiescent.

An eruptive prominence on the northwest limb (EPL), centered near N44W90, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off from 15/0418-0518 UTC. Coronagraph imagery had not backfilled as of the time of this discussion, but initial imagery appears to indicate a trajectory too far north of the Sun-Earth line to have an impact at Earth. Additional analysis will be accomplished when imagery backfills to determine if there is an Earth-directed CME associated with the EPL. No other Earth-directed CMEs were evident in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (15-17 Mar), with Region 2421 and a region just beyond the east limb being the likely source locations.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (15-16 Mar), with moderate to high levels likely on day three (17 Mar) due to electron redistribution in association with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 380 km/s before increasing to reach speeds over 600 km/s by the end of the UT day, and averaging approximately 550 km/s through the end of the period. The total IMF strength was steady at 5 to 7 nT until 14/1623 UTC, when total IMF strength increased to a peak of 26 nT at 14/1855 UTC. Total field then decreased to average near 7 nT at around 15/2230 UTC, where they remained through the end of the period. The Bz component became variable around 14/1800 UTC, but then settled in to average near -6 nT for most of the rest of the period. Maximum southward deflection reached was -20 nT at 14/1811 UTC. The phi angle changed from a positive sector to mostly negative after 14/1735 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced for the remainder of day one (15 Mar) due to CH HHS effects. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day two (16 Mar) as CH HSS influences continue. Solar winds speeds are expected to begin decreasing on day three (17 Mar) as the CH HSS influence begins to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels. During the 14/1500-1800 UTC synoptic period, conditions increased to unsettled levels, eventually reaching active and G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to the CIR and eventual onset of the positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming on day one (15 Mar) due to persistent CH HSS effects. The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming levels early on day two (16 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue, before decreasing to unsettled to active levels the remainder of the day. Geomagnetic response is expected to decrease to quiet to active levels by day three (17 Mar) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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