[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 2521 (N17W30, Dao/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1538 UTC, as well as a couple of B-class flares. Region 2522 (N15W85, plage) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 flare at 16/0646 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (853 km/s est. shock speed) at 16/0645 UTC. A CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 16/0700 UTC, likely associated with the C2 flare activity. Analysis is underway to determine if there is an Earth-directed component and potential impacts at Earth if there is. Region 2519 (N05W12, Cso/beta) exhibited weak decay as it lost the majority of its trailer and intermediate spots. Region 2523 (S10W15, Cro/beta) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (16-18 Mar), mainly due to the flare probability of Region 2521 and the active region just beyond the NE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced, but well below alert thresholds, likely associated with the C2 flare mentioned earlier.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on day one (16 Mar), with an increase to moderate to high levels expected on days two and three (17-18 Mar) due to electron redistribution associated with CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels by midday on 16 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength was predominantly steady between 6 nT and 8 nT, with occasional fluctuations between 2 nT and 10 nT. Bz was variable throughout the period, with a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speed began the period near 535 km/s, reached a peak of 612 m/s at 15/1501 UTC, while maintaining an unsteady decrease to end-of-period speeds near 480 km/s. The phi angle remained predominantly negative (towards the Sun) with an isolated oscillation into the positive sector from approximately 16/0030 - 0300 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced as the CH HSS influences continue on day one (16 Mar). Solar wind speeds are expected to continue a declining trend towards background conditions on day two (17 Mar) as the CH HSS effects wane. Day three (18 Mar) is expected to see a return to more background-like conditions as the CH HSS rotates out of geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1-Minor storm levels in response to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Minor storming (G1-Minor) conditions are likely on day one (16 Mar) due to continuing CH HSS influences, coupled with periods of prolonged southward Bz component. By day two (17 Mar), the CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane, resulting in primarily unsettled to active geomagnetic response. Day three (18 Mar) is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects diminish.

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