[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 17 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels, with only low level B-class flares observed during the period. Region 2519 (N04W29,Dso/beta) had a spot develop just south of its main leader spot that eventually faded, leaving just a relatively inactive bi-pole. It did, however, produce a B4 flare at 16/1955 UTC that appears to have been the largest flare of the period. Region 2521 (N18W42, Cro/beta) and Region 2523 (S10W30, Bxo/beta) both exhibited signs of decay, with most of the spots barely visible by the end of the period. Region 2524 (N14E67, Dao/beta) continued to rotate onto the visible disk, revealing a trailer spot and enhanced magnetic complexity. Region 2525 (N12E18, Cro/beta) exhibited signs of decay, also losing the majority of its spots.

An approximately 12 degree long filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the solar disk near S48W42 from approximately 16/2114-2147 UTC. No corresponding CME was discernible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery, indicating most of the ejecta was likely reabsorbed into the corona. There was also a CME that originated from just beyond the west limb that was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at approximately 17/0244 UTC. No Earth-directed component is expected from this CME, based on the location and trajectory of the ejecta.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (17-19 Mar), mainly due to the magnetic complexity of Regions 2519 and 2524.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 3,690 pfu at 16/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated but below S1 (Minor) storm levels, due to yesterdays C2 flare from Region 2522.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (17-19 Mar) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for all three days (17-19 Mar) of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment continued to reflect negative CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed remained fairly consistent, averaging near 580 km/s during the period, observing a peak speed of 647 km/s at 17/0805 UTC. The total IMF strength began the period at 7 nT, peaked at just under 10 nT, and ended the period near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly north through 16/1845 UTC when it saw southward deflections near -8 nT. Bz remained in a mostly southward orientation, with occasional oscillations into the positive sector throughout the period. The phi angle was mostly negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to begin decreasing the latter part of day one (17 Mar) and into day two (18 Mar) as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of a fully geoeffective position. Day three (19 Mar) is expected to see a return to near background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled levels for the majority of the day. Minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions were observed during the 16/2100-2400 UTC synoptic periods, as well as the 17/0000-0300 UTC and 17/0300-0600 UTC time frames, as CH HSS influence persisted.

Forecast: Active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected early in the forecast period on 17 Mar in response to continuing CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects begin to weaken late in the period. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (18 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue to diminish. Day three (19 Mar) is expected to see a return to quiet levels.

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