[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2524 (N15E56, Eao/beta) rotated further onto the Earth-side of the disk, and appeared to show slight growth in its intermediate spots. Accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity is still being hindered by foreshortening, but Region 2524 was responsible for a B3 flare at 17/1616 UTC. Region 2523 (S07W43, Axx/alpha) exhibited overall decay, losing the majority of its spots, but was responsible for a B5 flare at 18/0017 UTC. All other regions were inactive and underwent decay.

Several different solar filament were observed either erupting or disappearing from the solar disk. Analysis of each determined none of the associated CMEs had Earth-directed components. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (18-20 Mar), primarily due to the flare probability of Region 2524.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a maximum flux of 2,338 pfu at 17/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (18-20 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected the continued decrease in CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 600 km/s but steadily decreased to end-of-period speeds near 470 km/s. The total field strength averaged near 6 nT throughout the period, while Bz fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle remained in a primarily negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to trend towards background conditions on days one and two (18-19 Mar) as the negative polarity CH HSS begins rotating out of geoeffective position and its influence diminishes. Background levels are expected on day three (20 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field returned to quiet to unsettled levels as the influence from the negative polarity CH HSS began to wane.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (18-19 Mar) as residual CH HSS effects continue to taper off. Activity levels are expected to be mostly quiet by day three (20 Mar) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position.

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