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Re: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussio

To: propagation@contesting.com
Subject: Re: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 18 1230 UTC
From: "Timothy A. Holmes" <taholmes160@gmail.com>
Reply-to: taholmes160@gmail.com, Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2016 12:32:54 -0400
List-post: <propagation@contesting.com">mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
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Hi Folks:

Is there a product similar to this which focuses specifically on those of us who are HF radio operators and outlines in laymans terms what we can expect within the forecast period?

Thanks

TIM
W8TAH

On 3/18/2016 4:07 PM, nw7us@sunspotwatch.com wrote:
This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical
activity, issued 2016 Mar 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2524
(N15E56, Eao/beta) rotated further onto the Earth-side of the disk, and
appeared to show slight growth in its intermediate spots. Accurate
analysis of its magnetic complexity is still being hindered by
foreshortening, but Region 2524 was responsible for a B3 flare at
17/1616 UTC. Region 2523 (S07W43, Axx/alpha) exhibited overall decay,
losing the majority of its spots, but was responsible for a B5 flare at
18/0017 UTC. All other regions were inactive and underwent decay.

Several different solar filament were observed either erupting or
disappearing from the solar disk. Analysis of each determined none of
the associated CMEs had Earth-directed components. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with
a chance for C-class flares all three days (18-20 Mar), primarily due to
the flare probability of Region 2524.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to
high levels, with a maximum flux of 2,338 pfu at 17/1905 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels all three days (18-20 Mar) due to CH HSS
effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft,
reflected the continued decrease in CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds
began the period near 600 km/s but steadily decreased to end-of-period
speeds near 470 km/s. The total field strength averaged near 6 nT
throughout the period, while Bz fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. The phi
angle remained in a primarily negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to trend towards
background conditions on days one and two (18-19 Mar) as the negative
polarity CH HSS begins rotating out of geoeffective position and its
influence diminishes. Background levels are expected on day three (20 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field returned to quiet to unsettled
levels as the influence from the negative polarity CH HSS began to wane.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels for days one and two (18-19 Mar) as residual CH HSS effects
continue to taper off. Activity levels are expected to be mostly quiet
by day three (20 Mar) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web
site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

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https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

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last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
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Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Mar 18 20:07 UTC
<http://g.nw7us.us/22ssfXf>

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com <http://SunSpotWatch.com>


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