[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 19 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2524 (N15E49, Eho/beta) underwent minor decay in its intermediate spot area and Region 2519 (N04W48, Hsx/alpha) was stable. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (19-21 Mar) with Region 2524 being the likely source of C-class activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 7,410 pfu observed at 18/1335 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (19-21 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were slightly enhanced. Bt was between 5 - 8 nT. Bz was variable until 19/0500 UTC when a prolonged southward orientation with a maximum deflection of -7 nT was observed. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 400 - 450 km/s. The magnetic field rotated northward after 19/0900 UTC. Phi was predominantly in the negative sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels on days one through three (19-21 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions due to prolonged periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (19 Mar), with isolated periods of active conditions, as solar wind conditions continue to trend towards ambient levels. Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (20-21 Mar) under a background solar wind environment.

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