[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 20 1235 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 20 1235 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare at 20/0049 UTC and a C3 flare at 20/0133 UTC, from around the NW limb, were the strongest events of the period. Region 2524 (N16E27, Eho/beta) and Region 2519 (N01W66, Hsx/alpha) were relatively quiet and stable.

A 17 degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near S30E05. SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery, along with GONG imagery observed the eruption between 19/2146 - 2310 UTC. No related CME signatures were apparent with the event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (20-22 Mar) with Region 2524 being the likely source of C-class activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (20-22 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected ambient conditions. Bt was between 4-6 nT. Bz was variable +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were relatively stable, averaging around 430 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels on days one and two (20-21 Mar). An enhancement is expected on day three (22 Mar) with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions due to periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (20-21 Mar) under a background solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (22 Mar) as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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