[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2524 (N16E16, Eso/beta) was the largest region on the disk. It developed several quickly dissipating intermediate spots as it quietly rotated across the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed with available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (21-23 Mar) with Region 2524 being the likely source of C-class activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak of 1640 pfu at 20/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels over the next three days (21-23 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a mostly nominal environment. Bt was was between 5-7 nT for the majority of the day, dropping to 3-5 nT towards the end of the period. Wind speeds were variable between 370-440 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels on day one (21 Mar). An enhancement is expected on days two and three (22-23 Mar) with the onset of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions due to extended periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (21 Mar) with isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (22-23 Mar) with a chance for isolated active periods as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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