[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The sole spotted region on the visible disk, Region 2524 (N15E02, Eso/beta), remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed with available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (22-24 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on day one (22 Mar), but only be at moderate levels on days two and three (23-24 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected a mostly nominal solar wind environment. Total field strength was between 3-7 nT, while Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Wind speeds ranged between about 375-460 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive with variations to negative at the beginning and ending of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be near background levels for the first half of day one (22 Mar). Late on day one, a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to move into a geoeffective position with effects lasting into days two and three (23-24 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods, on all three days (22-24 Mar) of the forecast period as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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