[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. An unnumbered region that just appeared on the East limb produced the only activity of the period with a few B-class flares. Region 2524 (N15W23, Eso/beta) remained the only spotted region on the disk and was stable and inactive over the last 24 hours.

Other activity included an active filament centered near N16W05 that erupted between 24/1000-1100 UTC, as seen in GONG/H-Alpha imagery. Further forecaster analysis will occur to determine if there is an associated CME with this event as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (24-26 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (24-26 Mar) as CH HSS influences subside. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected a near background solar wind environment. Total field strength ranged between 4-10 nT, Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 450 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on day one (24 Mar) as recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects wane. Day two (25 Mar) should a return to near background levels as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position. On day three (26 Mar), the solar wind environment should see another slight enhancement ahead of the next recurrent positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods on days one and two (24-25 Mar) as effects from the CH HSS wane. Day three (26 Mar) should see a slight increase in activity, bringing conditions up to unsettled with a slight chance for an isolated active period as another positive polarity CH HSS moves closer to a geoeffective position.

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