[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2524 (N13W36, Eso/beta) continued to exhibit gradual decay around the trailer spot. Region 2526 (S01E64, Hsx/alpha) was relatively stable throughout the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (25-27 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were slightly enhanced. Total field strength reached a peak of 9 nT during the first half of the period before decreasing to below 5 nT by the periods end. Bz remained mostly northward. Solar wind speeds increased from 450 km/s to around 550 km/s for the later half of the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive (away from the Sun) sector over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background levels on days one and two (25-26 Mar). Day three is expected to see an enhancement as an anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a positive polarity, polar-connected coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated period of unsettled associated with an enhancement in solar wind speeds.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar). Quiet levels are expected on day two (26 Mar) and into early on day three (27 Mar). Late on day three (27 Mar), the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to bring unsettled conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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