[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 26 1240 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 26 1240 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period. An impulsive B6/Sf flare at 25/1500 UTC from Region 2526 (S02E52, Hsx/alpha) was the strongest of the period. Region 2524 (N12W48, Cso/beta) continued to exhibit gradual decay in its trailer spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were at near-background levels. Bt was between 2-5 nT while Bz varied from +/- 2 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from around 540 km/s at the beginning of the period to near 360 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly orientated in the positive (away from the Sun) sector. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels on day one (26 Mar). The anticipated onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a north polar-connected, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to cause a solar wind enhancement on days two and three (27-28 Mar). This recurrent feature produced solar wind speeds of around 500 km/s last rotation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (26 Mar) under a nominal solar wind environment. The field is expected to reach active levels on days two and three (27-28 Mar) as an anticipated north polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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