[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 27 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2526 (S04E37, Hsx/alpha) exhibited some minor development near its leader spot. Region 2524 (N14W68, Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (27 Mar) with moderate to high levels likely on days two and three (28-29 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the influence of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Total field strength was enhanced with a peak flux of 12 nT at 27/0926 UTC. Bz has remained mostly northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds increased from near 350 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 420 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the influence of the (CH HSS) on days one through three (27-29 March). Total field strength is expected to decrease to near 5 nT as the CIR transitions into the HSS. Wind speeds are expected to peak between 450-500 km/s while density decreases to around 1 p/cc. A gradual decay in solar wind speed is expected on day two (28 Mar) and into day three (29 Mar) as the influence of the CH HSS slowly wanes

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to unsettled from the onset of a CIR becoming geoeffective.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels late on day one and early on day two (27-28 Mar) due to the onset of a CIR followed the influence of a north polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (29 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides.

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