[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2524 (N75W80, Hsx/alpha) produced a C2 flare at 28/0228 UTC, the strongest of the period. Both Region 2524 and Region 2526 (S05E25, Hsx/alpha) underwent little change throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed with available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (28-30 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (28-30 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the influence of a CH HSS. Total field strength was enhanced, with a peak of 11 nT observed in the first half of the period. After 28/0000 UTC, total field strength decreased to around 6-7 nT. Solar wind speed increased from around 400 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 500 km/s by the periods end. Phi remained in the positive (away from the Sun) sector over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the influence of the CH HSS on days one and two (28-29 March). Total field strength is expected to remain near 5 nT and wind speeds are expected to peak between around 500 km/s. A gradual decay in solar wind speed is expected late on day one (28 Mar) and into day two (29 Mar) as the influence of the CH HSS wanes. Mostly nominal conditions are expected on day three (30 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to unsettled from influence of the CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Mar) due to the continued influence of the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (29 Mar) as CH HSS influence gradually subsides. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (30 Mar) under a nominal solar wind environment.

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