[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2524 (S04E11, Hsx/alpha) displayed signs of growth to the south of its leader spot but appeared to maintain its unipolar designation. It produced multiple low level B-class flares during the reporting period but was largely undistinguished. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (29-31 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to moderate levels on day one (29 Mar) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (30-31 March) due to electron redistribution associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was suggestive of positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the period near 475 km/s, achieved a maximum speed of 588 km/s at 29/0408 UTC, and ended the period near 520 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 5 and 8 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the IMF was variable but never dropped lower than -5 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (29 Mar) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed is expected to start decreasing by day two (30 Mar) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. A return to background levels is anticipated for day three (31 Mar) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (29 Mar) due to persistent CH HSS effects. Days two and three (30-31 Mar) are expected to be at mostly quiet levels as CH HSS effects diminish.

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