[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The sole numbered sunspot on the visible disk, Region 2526 (S05W03, Hsx/alpha), appeared to lose its bipolar designation as its trailer spots returned to plage. Region 2526 was absent of significant flare activity and departed Region 2524 (N14, L=283) produced several low level B-class flares. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (30-31 Mar and 01 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on day one (30 Mar) and moderate to high levels on days two and three (31 Mar and 01 Apr) due to electron redistribution associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was suggestive of persistent CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed began the period near 520 km/s and gradually rose to a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0222 UTC. The total field (Bt) was steady, peaking at 5 nT, while the Bz component reached a low value of -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to start tapering on day one (30 Mar) as CH HSS effects wane. Day two (31 Mar) is expected to see a return to near background speeds as the CH HSS rotates out of its geoeffective position. Late on day three (01 Apr), an additional enhancement is expected as the Earth begins to see the influence of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Mar) due to continuing, but waning effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day two (31 Mar) and the majority of day three (01 Apr) due to diminished CH HSS influence. Late on day three, unsettled to active conditions are anticipated due to the arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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