[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2526 (S05W16, Hsx/alpha) produced a B1 flare at 30/1611 UTC. This lone, nondescript, numbered sunspot group was absent of growth or decay and remained stable. A disappearing solar filament (DSF), centered near S30W51, was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery lifting off of the visible disk at approximately 31/0030 UTC. The trajectory appears to be off of the Sun-Earth line, however, analysis is ongoing to determine any potential impact. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare throughout the forecast period (31 Mar, 01-02 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels all three days (31 Mar, 01-02 Apr) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were suggestive of tapering CH HSS effects. Wind speed displayed a steady decline, beginning the period near 520 km/s and ending at approximately 450 km/s. Total field values were steady between 3 and 5 nT while the maximum southward extent of the Bz component was -4 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a positive (away from the Sun) sector for the majority of the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of geoeffective position during day one (31 Mar). Solar wind speed is expected to approach near background levels by day two (01 Apr). Late on day two, the IMF may become disturbed due to a pending solar sector boundary change (SSBC) and an approaching CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. The negative polarity CH HSS is expected to influence Earth by day three (02 Apr) with elevated solar wind speeds. This negative polarity CH HSS is smaller in heliographic expanse than during its previous rotation, however, analysis of solar wind data from the Stereo-A spacecraft on 23 Mar indicated wind speeds between 450-500 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active (below G1-Minor) conditions due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) due to continued, but waning CH HSS effects. Day two (01 Apr) is expected to experience mostly quiet conditions until late in the day when unsettled to active levels are likely due to an approaching CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day three (02 Apr) is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming levels in response to the anticipated CH HSS feature.

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