[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2529 (N10W32, Eki/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period; a C4/1f at 15/1430 UTC. Some consolidation was observed in the trailer spots, but the region maintained a weak gamma configuration. Region 2530 (N05E74, Axx/alpha) was quiet and stable as it approached the west limb. Region 2531 (N13E20) decayed to plage. New Region 2532 (N08E67, Cao/beta) quietly rotated onto the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) over the next three days (16-18 Apr) due to the flare potential of Region 2529.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,538 pfu observed at 15/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels for the duration of the forecast period (16-18 Apr) in response to recent geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component was primarily northward throughout the period with some southward reflection to -6 nT after 16/0400 UTC. Solar wind speed was steady at about 375 km/s through about 16/0445 UTC when an increase to 475 km/s was observed. Wind speeds gradually declined to near 400 km/s by periods end. This increase in wind speed was associated with an SSBC from a negative to a positive sector at 16/0453 UTC.

Forecast: A near-background solar wind environment is expected on days one and two (16-17 Apr). Later on day three (18 Apr), an enhancement in the solar wind parameters from the onset of a CH HSS is anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions on days one and two (16-17 Apr). Day three is likely to see an increase in unsettled conditions in response to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS becoming geoeffective.

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