[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2529 (N11W46, Cko/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period; a C5 event at 16/1958 UTC. Dissipation and penumbra loss was observed among the intermediate and trailer spots with a loss of the gamma magnetic configuration. Region 2532 (N07E60, Cao/beta) remained quiet and stable. A Type II radio emission was observed at 16/2049 UTC with an estimated shock velocity of 743 km/s.

Associated with the C5 event, LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME off the west limb, first visible at 16/2036 UTC. Analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) over the next three days (17-19 Apr) due to the flare potential of Region 2529.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,090 pfu observed at 16/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels for the duration of the forecast period (17-19 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected enhanced conditions, possibly associated with a coronal disruption observed on 12 Apr. Total field ranged between 1-10 nT. The Bz component was oriented predominately southward to -8 nT through the period. Solar wind speeds were steady at an average speed of about 425 km/s. The phi angle began the period in a negative orientation, rotated to a positive sector at about 16/1930 UTC and rotated back to a mostly negative sector at about 17/0245 UTC.

Forecast: A near-background solar wind environment is expected on day one (17 Apr). Later on day two and into day three (18-19 Apr), an enhancement in the solar wind parameters is expected due to the onset of a CH HSS is anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to a sustained southward Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions on day one (17 Apr). Day two (18 Apr) is likely to see an increase in unsettled conditions in response to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS becoming geoeffective. Active conditions are likely on day three (19 Apr) as the CH HSS persists.

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